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15-Aug-2017 07:29 by 10 Comments

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In stressful and ambiguous times, when decision-making is compressed by the speed of modern weapons systems, the risk of human error is higher. So-called rules of engagement (ROEs), intended to guide and control the behavior of local actors, are typically general in scope and leave room for personal interpretation that may lead to actions that escalate a crisis situation. Both former secretary of state Hillary Clinton and former secretary of defense Leon Panetta clearly stated that the United States will defend Japan against any aggression, and on November 29, 2012, the U. Senate passed a resolution accompanying the 2013 National Defense Authorization Act to demonstrate congressional support for the Obama administration's commitment to Japan's defense.Compounding the risk of unintended escalation between Chinese and Japanese air and naval units is the unpredictable involvement of third parties such as fishermen or civilian activists who may attempt to land on the islands. As tensions escalated late last year, Washington increased its deployments in and around Japan.

To ease these heightened concerns, the United States could encourage Beijing to be more transparent about its maritime strategy and strategic goals.The danger of escalation to armed conflict increased when the two militaries became directly involved.On December 13, 2012, a small Chinese reconnaissance aircraft entered undetected into Japanese airspace above the islands.Preventing armed conflict between Japan and China over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands dispute ultimately depends on Beijing and Tokyo finding a mutually acceptable framework for managing their differences.An active diplomatic effort to embed the island dispute in a stronger and more constructive Japan-China relationship will be needed and could be encouraged by Washington. The first, and most preferable, is a bilateral diplomatic effort.China's Marine Surveillance agency intensified its patrols of the waters in and around the islands, and China's Bureau of Fisheries patrols followed suit.

The JCG in turn increased its patrols and put them on 24/7 alert.Although the crisis was eventually defused, the territorial dispute came to a head again in September 2012, when Japanese prime minister Yoshihiko Noda announced his government's decision to purchase three of the five islands.The islands were privately owned, but a new wave of activism, including Chinese attempts to land on the islands and a public campaign by the Tokyo governor to purchase them himself, prompted Noda to attempt to neutralize nationalist pressures.The United States, as a treaty ally of Japan but with vital strategic interests in fostering peaceful relations with China, has a major stake in averting such a clash and resolving the dispute, if possible.Sino-Japanese tensions in the East China Sea have been building steadily since 2010, when a Chinese fishing trawler rammed two Japan Coast Guard (JCG) vessels in waters near the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands and Japan detained the captain.Their actions could precipitate an armed response by either side. First, Japan and China are already finding it difficult to read each other's actions. policymakers have sought to lessen tensions but have also taken steps to clarify the U. Early this year, as military interactions raised the potential for conflict, Clinton restated the U. position that it would not accept any unilateral attempt to wrest control of the islands. assurances could lead Tokyo to overestimate Washington's response and to act in a manner that would increase the chance for confrontation. Although this seems highly unlikely today, either party could take military action to assert sovereignty over the disputed islands.

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